Portfolio #1: Calculating the Federal Reserve rate change probability using Fed Funds futures

During the recent US election, the concept of the balance of trade was bounced around a lot, but not always used in the correct manner. This is due to a combination of politics and ignorance, and can be cured by understanding exactly how the balance of trade works.

Markets are constantly looking for signs that indicate that the current economic climate is about to change. Those signs are usually provided by economic indicators which are regularly reported and closely followed by traders and investors around the world.

In financial economics, there is a heated debate among academics over whether it’s possible to generate excess returns above the average market return. Because, if a group of traders or investors is able to outperform the general market, that market couldn’t be described as efficient.